Five anchors · two algorithms · one sanity check
This is the crux skill behind Hand Analyser's §2 — how often you actually win: estimating your equity against a range before you ever open the tool. The numbers below are ballpark anchors for memorization, not exact — Hand Analyser computes the precise figure for your exact cards, board, and range every time. Use this page to build the habit; use the tool to check your work. Preflop and postflop each get their own short algorithm below. Work through it, land on a number, then run the spot for real.
Pattern-match your hand's relationship to a typical range hand against the nearest one of these, then adjust from there.
| Matchup | Favorite's equity |
|---|---|
| Pair vs. two live overcardse.g. JJ vs AKo — the classic "race" | ~55% |
| Pair vs. a smaller paire.g. TT vs 55 — no overcards live for the small pair | ~80% |
| Same top card, better kickere.g. AKo vs AQo — domination | ~74% |
| Two big cards vs. two smallere.g. AKo vs QJs — not dominated, just bigger | ~62% |
| Small suited hand vs. a big paire.g. 87s vs AA — preflop, gets crushed | ~80% |
These shift a few points with exact blockers and suits — treat them as anchors to interpolate from, not fixed truths. Hand Analyser's own "Doing this in your head" box regenerates these five fresh from your actual hand every report; watch them enough times and the numbers above stop being something you memorized and start being something you know.
An anchor assumes a roughly standard range. Widen or tighten that, and your number moves with it.
| Their range | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| Tight — 5–12%a big raise, or a player who barely plays hands | −8 to −15 pts |
| Standard — 15–25%a normal open or continuation | baseline |
| Loose — 30–50%a wide steal, or someone who plays too much | +8 to +15 pts |
Add a small ±2–3 point nudge on top: suited or paired holds its value a little better; offsuit and disconnected loses a little.
| Draw | Outs | Flop → river | Turn → river |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 9 | ~36% | ~18% |
| Open-ended straight | 8 | ~32% | ~16% |
| Gutshot | 4 | ~16% | ~8% |
| Two overcards | 6 | ~24% | ~12% |
| Combo draw (flush + straight) | 12–15 | ~50%+ | ~25–30% |
The rule of 4-and-2 is deliberately rough — it runs a little high at two-cards-to-come and ignores outs that also improve them. treat as an estimate